PERFECT parenting conditions may be what couples here unconsciously seek.

This thought crosses demographer Paul Cheung's mind when he sees New York career women struggling with prams and parental duties, yet are determined to have it all.

Dr Cheung was Singapore's chief statistician from 1990 to 2004.

Now New York-based, he is the director of the United Nations Statistics Division, working at the apex of the global statistical system.

'American mothers go through a little bit of hardship relative to Singapore mothers,' he tells Insight. 'But they manage it. They pull through and they enjoy the process.'

Having seen Singapore's population trends for 25 years, he says the Government has done a 'good job' to foster a babyloving nation.

But Dr Cheung, 55, returns often to his point about values. 'How much do people really value a family life and having children?' he wonders.

'To the extent that people do not value that and prefer the free-and-easy two-income and no-kids lifestyle, then no matter what enabling environment the Government puts into place, it will not work.'

It appears that Singaporeans have a 'mental map' of what the ideal family is and the path of least resistance to parenthood: 'That means you must have a house or a maid. Then, when everything is settled, you have a kid.'

As this attitude contends with 20-plus years of pro- natal policies, he thinks the baby deficit may now be a 'structural' problem.

But the bright news is that Singapore leaders prepared long and strategically for baby-linked difficulties. Mainly, these are a dwindling workforce that saps economic vitality and an ageing population.

He gives the big picture of Singapore's historic chance to rise economically as never before if it balances its procreation and manpower policies right: 'Singapore is entering a new and very creative era of growth. So Singaporeans should be happy with all this excitement of growth.'

But the truth is that demographics are a constraint. The domestic labour supply is inadequate. The upside: Local-born Singaporeans will find jobs very easily if they are well-educated and have the expertise.

In this light, the country has opened its doors more liberally to immigrant workers.

'They are mostly at the prime working ages of 20 to 30, so they supplement the workforce tremendously,' says Dr Cheung, speaking to Insight during a quick visit here this week, after receiving an honorary doctorate from the National University of Mongolia.

'Without them, the economy will take a very heavy blow. We will not enter this new era of growth.'

These workers form a 'revolving pool', here to work but not to stay.

Another group, permanent residents, is growing. He disputes the idea that they do not bring as much youth to the population as new babies and will compete for national resources when they age.

'If they decide to take up permanent residency, it means they have faith in Singapore's future,' says Hong Kong-born Dr Cheung, now a citizen. 'PRs make their contribution. In turn, they expect the society to take care of some of their welfare.'

But the domestic cohort of local-born Singaporeans cannot be too small: 'That's the basis of a society, that you must have a continuous flow of new members into it.'

Thiscohort grows by 39,000 or 40,000 births a year, which he calls 'a pretty good size'.

Dr Cheung, who started the Population Planning Unit in 1986 to address the nation's flagging fertility, says: 'We were expecting that, when we ended anti-natal policies and removed the lid, people would say: 'Ah, you no longer force us to have only two children, we'll go back up to the larger family.''

That happened to a small extent and a little of the suppressed demand for babies was unleashed. But the results were never spectacular.

'We have many years of experience but we know only what doesn't work and we don't know really what works,' he concludes. 'So the outcome is, we have not been able to see much of a result.'

But Singapore can take some comfort from the global experience, particularly Japan, in two respects.

Population trends are cyclical in many lands and the spectre of ageing can be managed.

Over 20 per cent of Japan's population is 65 and older. 'But people have accepted that and, so far, there is very little implication for the Japan economy. The Japanese seem to cope pretty well.'

Singapore, always strategic, started work on its ageing issues 20 years ago: 'Institutions have been established and evolved to deal with it. Medisave, MediShield and all the other instruments are in place and these are being fine-tuned over time.'

Ministerial committees have reviewed issues repeatedly and fully. He adds a rosy note: 'I am not that concerned partly because of this long preparatory process. But until we face it, we don't know how it would impact the society.

'But I'm hopeful because we know the dimensions of the issues and the policy options are in place.'

In Japan, changing values portend well for births. 'I was told by my demographic colleagues in Japan that they are noticing a change in the values among younger Japanese, a return to their roots and family life,' he says. 'They are seeing signs of the birth rate rebounding among the younger generation.'

He is optimistic that this trend can arise in Singapore.

He says reflectively: 'Maybe after all these years of the rat race and trying to climb the corporate ladder and fighting for career advancement, these factors will become less important and the family may become a little more important. This change in values could well happen here.'

Then the sound of babies will fill the country.

This article was first published in The Straits Times on July 12, 2008.