INFORMATION technology manager Tan Keng Hee has a radical suggestion for the Government. Make it two.

One, build love hotels for couples who have little privacy to be amorous.

Two, subsidise the use of soft porn.

He reckons these moves will give rise to more babies.

The 43-year-old father of three is not, well, kid-ding.

He recounts how public TV channels in South Korea show soft porn, which he believes can help create the mood for making whoopie.

It will not be difficult, with current technology, to confine such shows to married couples, he says, suggesting: 'Perhaps, they can be given an access code - maybe their SingPass password.''

Mr Tan's ideas may be extreme, but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Twenty years have passed since Singapore introduced policies to encourage parenthood. But they have yet to produce the desired result, a situation that looks set to bring even more incentives.

On Wednesday, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew hinted that the Government is looking at giving free childcare and paid paternity leave - measures that depart from its longstanding frugal stance against dispensing freebies.

The possibility of paid paternity leave is also a shift in the country's traditionally matriarchal approach towards parenthood. Currently, fathers get three days' leave when their child is born while mothers get three months of paid maternity leave.

But the parenthood picture is dire.

Since 1976, or 32 years ago, Singaporeans have failed to produce enough babies to maintain the population.

On average, 2.1 births per woman are needed to prevent the population from shrinking in the long run. This works out to 60,000 babies a year.

But the numbers tend to hover below 40,000. Last year, 39,490 children were born here - just two-thirds of what is required. Even so, one-quarter of them have non-Singaporean fathers.

Demographers warn that the gap carries a risk.

Explaining in terms of fertility rates, they note that Singapore's resident total fertility rate is now 1.29.

Although it is above the record low of 1.26 in 2003, it is still below 1.3, a figure that holds 'a special mathematical portent' for them, says an article in The New York Times.

'At that rate, a country's population would be cut in half in 45 years, creating a falling-off-a-cliff effect from which it would be nearly impossible to recover,' it says.

What this means is the population would have shrunk past the point of no return.

It is a future that could be hastened by a double whammy that will never go away.

One is the greying of the baby-boomers who form about a quarter of the population.

Their ageing will see deaths exceeding births in 20 years' time, predicts statistician Paul Cheung, Singapore's former chief statistician who is now director of the United Nations Statistics Division.

The other is the mounting number of younger Singaporeans heading overseas to live and work.

The cumulative effect is not lost on the Government.

Since 1987, it has been introducing progressively enhanced incentives to reverse the decline in births.

Regularly, the population problem has been a theme in the most politically significant address made each year: the National Day Rally speech.

Its importance was further manifested when Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, in his inaugural Rally address in 2004, gave a $300-million package of sweeteners to further arouse the desire for babies.

Two years later, he returned to the subject. This time, he coupled having babies with encouraging immigration, saying they are necessary measures for maintaining a vital pool of talent to keep the economy humming.

Today, Insight takes stock of the situation.

How far have the measures succeeded? What more can be done? Is having a baby a question of money, time, desire - or ...?

Last major changes

EIGHT months ago, Mr Douglas Leong, 40, and his 29-year-old wife had their first child, a daughter.

Although the 2004 raft of goodies did not influence the lawyer couple, it helped ease the way, he says.

Most useful were the longer paid maternity leave - increased to three months from two - and the two days of childcare leave.

The Leongs' response did not surprise sociologist Paulin Straughan.

While the package was significant in sending the message 'that if you want to invest in your family, the state stands behind you', she felt it spoke largely to the converts.

'They were effective in facilitating family formation for those who were already planning to do so,' she says.

Figures seem to bear her out.

In 2005, the number of births rose to 37,492, a level that arrested and reversed the downtrend, albeit slightly.

The following year, it inched up to 38,317 and a year later, to 39,490.

The climb continues. In the first five months of this year, the 16,232 births exceeded the number in the same period last year.

But when scrutinised, the data shows limitations that led the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority to conclude last year that 'the immediate impact of the Baby Bonus scheme has not been felt'.

For instance, the age of first-time mothers rose to 29.4. Couples also waited longer - 28 months after marriage - to have their first child.

The figures indicate that couples are in no hurry to collect the cash bonus, which amounts to $3,000 for the first and second child, and $6,000 for the third and fourth child.

As Mr Tan puts it: 'While it was a nice-to-have benefit in addition to the joys of having a child, it was not a strong pull factor.'

Gaps that remain

IT IS apparent that the obstacles in the way of Cupid and the stork are deep-seated.

They have nothing to do with a lack of desire to get hitched or have a family, according to a survey by the Government last year.

It shows 85 per cent of singles want to marry and almost 80 per cent of married couples want, not one, but two or three children.

So what is stopping them from fulfilling their dream?

Reality, it seems.

The structure of modern Singapore society discourages parenthood, say parents. For instance, Electronic Road Pricing gantries reward drivers for going home from work after 8pm, when most road charges are lifted.

Also, the corporate rat race is relentless. Most career couples find it difficult to accept the high opportunity cost of having children.

Some obstacles, however, can be fixed by the state.

Topping the list is the shortage of affordable infant-care and childcare facilities, a situation that looks set to change, as hinted by MM Lee.

No less important is giving greater recognition to grandparents for minding the baby.

Also, there are plans to raise the housing grants for couples with children, even if they fail to snag an HDB flat near their parents' homes, which are often in mature estates where flats are hard to come by. They get an extra $10,000 - on top of a $30,000 family grant - only if they live within 2km of their parents.

But other barriers are almost insurmountable. The cost of living, for one thing.

To those who say that having children is a personal choice that entails personal sacrifices, parents such as 32-year-old senior compensation analyst Nina Zafar and Ms Susan Soh point out that it is not a simple black-and- white issue.

Ms Soh gave birth four months ago and returned to work as a part-time hairstylist two months later. She and her husband, a warehouse assistant, intend to stop at two.

'It's necessary when you live in Singapore. It is very expensive for the average family,' she says.

'Of course, you can say we can do without the 'extras' like tuition. But the Singapore system is so competitive and we all want our children to do well.'

Related to the issue is the way work is put on a pedestal in Singapore.

A 37-year-old mum working in the IT industry tells Insight that her employers were cool to the idea of any staff member having children.

'That made me wait four years to have my second child,' she says.

Children can also slow a woman's climb up the career ladder, adds Ms Whang Soo Ann, 29, a finance manager.

'With three months' maternity leave, morning sickness and numerous medical certificates, a mum will be less productive than a peer who is free of the above.'

What may prove persuasive are work-life measures, says demographer Yap Mui Teng. The government survey last year found that Singaporeans see parenthood as a joint responsibility.

'So men need also to be involved, and more family- friendly policies can help men as well,' says Dr Yap.

One possibility is paid paternity leave, or to let the father take a slice of the maternity leave.

Such options are available in countries like Germany where fathers get two months' paid leave. Even in Myanmar, fathers get six days off to be with their wives during confinement periods.

Ultimately, it boils down to a change in mindset at every level, from the state to unions, employers and the people.

Says Dr Straughan: 'Society has to take a step back and see what is the desired outcome. And if necessary, accept an overall dip in work productivity in return for a more balanced culture that brings about more children.'

She finds it ridiculous that Singapore workers would typically work overtime. 'Only people with no life would have time for overtime. We should have a shut-down system. At 6pm, or 7pm, shut down the air-con. In return, workers should just take fewer coffee breaks.'

She adds: 'We need to grow a culture where a good work-life balance is appreciated and does not come at a personal cost. Right now, it comes at a personal cost.'

The Government, as the biggest employer, should take the lead, she says.

However, there are some for whom no amount of measures will matter.

A mother of a four- year-old girl is typical. Wanting to be known only as Karen, the company director who is in her early 30s, asks: 'Why do people keep having kids?

'After all, children cost their parents more in food and college tuition than they bring in.

'If people want to maximise their subjective well-being, they should stop at one. Progression from one to two children has ramifications for the family finances, time use, the socialisation for the parents and the well-being of the child.'

After all, she adds, single children gain 'higher-than-average educational achievements, income and wealth'.

'Lastly, I want to nurture myself without neglecting my daughter,' she says.

Looking ahead

SOME may view Karen's attitude as hard-nosed but it is not uncommon in modern, pragmatic Singapore.

So, perhaps in acknowledgement of it, PM Lee had said that Singapore would never return to the replacement rate of 2.1.

This is not necessarily dismal news as some demographers have argued that the replacement level need not be 2.1 if people live longer, notes Dr Yap.

Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng, who oversees the National Population Committee, has said that 'it will be very good if we can move this closer to 1.7 in future'.

Such a level means having about 48,600 babies a year.

Love hotels and soft porn aside, Mr Tan has a simple formula for achieving it: 'Bring back the joy of happy families and babies will surely come.'

This article was first published in The Straits Times on July 12, 2008.